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I bounce off every statistics book around chapter three

The wall is real and it is not about you. Hypothesis testing is where most books switch from explaining ideas to teaching a procedure, and the procedure is genuinely unintuitive when it arrives without motivation.

What got me through was reading two kinds of book at the same time. One narrative book about how statistics goes wrong in the world, which gives you the reason to care, and one working book where you do things with actual data. How to Lie with Statistics is very short, decades old, and still the best cheap introduction to why any of this matters. The Signal and the Noise is the longer modern version of the same instinct.

Then for the doing part: pick a dataset you personally care about, something like your own running times or your electricity use, and answer one question with it. The formulas stop being formulas about nothing and start being answers to a question you actually asked.

262 · in/book-recs ·

Why do phone photos of the full moon always come out as a white blob

It is exposure, not resolution. The moon is a sunlit rock. It is being lit by exactly the same sunlight that lights your street at noon, so the correct exposure for it is roughly the daylight rule, something like f/11 at 1/125 second at ISO 100.

Your phone sees a frame that is 99 percent black sky, decides the scene is very dark, and opens up by six or eight stops. The moon is then massively overexposed and clips to pure white. Your eyes do the equivalent of local metering, which is why you see detail and the phone does not.

The fix on any modern phone: tap on the moon to focus, then drag the little exposure slider down, usually a long way down, until the disc stops glowing and you start seeing grey patches. On most phones that is between two and four stops of negative compensation. If you have a pro or manual mode, set ISO 100 and shutter around 1/125 and you will get craters immediately.

Use the optical telephoto lens if the phone has one, and stop before digital zoom takes over, because past that point you are just enlarging pixels.

466 · in/curiosities ·

Why does my breath fog on some cold mornings but not others at the same temperature

Humidity, or more precisely how close the outside air already is to saturation.

Your breath leaves at roughly 35C and essentially 100 percent relative humidity every single time. What happens next depends entirely on the air it mixes into. The saturation curve is strongly nonlinear, so when a warm wet parcel mixes with a cold one, the mixture can briefly hold more water than it can carry at its new temperature, and the excess condenses into the fog you see.

If Thursday's air was dry, the mixture stayed under saturation the whole way and there was nothing to see. Damp mornings after rain fog beautifully at temperatures where a dry cold snap gives you nothing.

224 · in/explain-science ·