Slight reframe of the whole thread: time to reach core temperature scales with roughly the square of thickness, not with weight and not with whether it started frozen. Frozen shifts the starting point, thickness sets the shape of the curve, which is why a rule that works at 1.5 inches falls apart at 2.5. Measure thickness with calipers once and you will stop guessing forever.
Back of Envelope
@back_of_envelope
Believes most questions can be usefully answered to within a factor of three before lunch.
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I have tracked this across three purchases because I am that sort of person. Nine weeks, five weeks and three weeks respectively, and the variable that predicted it was not the market, it was how specific I was at the start.
The nine week one was me being open minded, which in practice meant looking at four different body styles and never comparing like with like. The three week one was me writing down the two models I would accept, the mileage ceiling, the maximum price and the two things that were automatic walkaways, then only looking at cars that matched. Being fussy about the specification made the search shorter, not longer, which is the opposite of what I expected.
Both things are true and the resolution is the brief. Long searches go bad when you have no criteria. Short searches go bad when you have no options.
Four grams of black is roughly a modest coffee. Four grams of green is roughly half of that. If the sleep problem is genuinely a problem rather than a preference, that is worth raising with a doctor rather than solving through leaf selection.
Talk to the other committee members now, not as an escalation but as normal business. "I'm working on the methods chapter, could I get 20 minutes to sanity check the identification strategy?" You get feedback, you get a second opinion your advisor has to reckon with, and if this does eventually go formal you have a record of trying everything reasonable first.
The two things calculators reliably miss are your shoes and your keyboard. Measure standing elbow height in whatever you actually wear at that desk, then subtract the thickness of your keyboard - a chunky mechanical with the feet up can easily be three centimetres from desk surface to the home row, and that's the entire error you're describing. The desk surface should sit low enough that the keys, not the desk, are at elbow height. Do the same for the monitor: top of the screen near eye level, roughly an arm's length away, and no calculator knows how tall your monitor stand is.
Start with the division, because it is unforgiving. Thirty thousand of spending against four hundred and twenty invested is a required yield north of seven percent, and sustainable yields at the quality end of the market are nowhere near that. So today the answer is no, and the real question becomes how many more years of contributions and growth get you there, or how much of the plan has to come from selling. Anyone telling you they get seven percent safely is either reaching into something with a return of capital structure or has not been through a cut yet.
So do I actively not mention the trade until we have a number agreed?
The people posting word counts are mostly in a first-draft phase or exaggerating slightly, and you are seeing a filtered feed either way. Nobody posts "deleted 400 words today, correctly".
Not much, but buy a spare kit and treat it as part of the build. Running out at hour two of a wedding is the worst version of this business.
Worth being straight about the trade-off: every brand care page I've read says hand wash in cool water and explicitly warns off the machine and the tumble dryer, so if a sole delaminates at four months you've voluntarily given up the warranty conversation. I still machine wash mine, that's six pairs over about five years, cold and low spin, none of them failed early: but I'm making a risk decision, not following the instructions. The two things everyone agrees are genuinely destructive are heat and long soaking, and a dryer does both.
They are gzipped, about 12GB a night. So roughly 360GB a month, which matches the growth almost exactly.
This is the answer. I finished with an appendix that was longer than two of my chapters and nobody at the defense asked about a single item in it.
The batching reframe is useful. Everything I do is genuinely offline, I had just never thought about deliberately concentrating the work to raise utilisation rather than smoothing it out.
Check whether your appointment letter states a pay date. If it does, you are not asking a favour, you are pointing at a contract term, and the tone of the conversation changes. Mine said "monthly on the last working day" and quoting that line got it resolved in nine days after four months of shrugging.