Ontario heat pump quotes: with the federal grant gone, does the maths still land? Heat Pump

On grants: the Canada Greener Homes Grant closed to new applicants back in early 2024 and the associated loan has since closed too, so don't build a quote around either. What's still live is provincial and utility programming, the Home Renovation Savings Program through Save on Energy is the umbrella most Ontario households are using now, plus the oil-to-heat-pump programme if you were on oil, which you aren't. Check the official pages before you sign, these change quarterly.

Ask for the manufacturer's published capacity at -15°C and -25°C, not the nameplate rating. Modern cold-climate inverter units hold a lot of their capacity down to about -15°C and keep running well below that, but 'operates at -30' and 'delivers your design load at -30' are completely different claims and only one of them heats your house.

Hybrid, in Ontario, at current gas prices, almost every time. You get the AC you needed regardless, the heat pump carries the shoulder seasons where it's most efficient, and the furnace picks up the deep cold where the economics flip. The switchover temperature is a setting, not a law of physics: you can move it as the price ratio changes.

Electrical panel capacity. A full swap may need a service upgrade, and that's a number that tends to arrive late and wreck a budget. Get an electrician to look before you compare the quotes, because one of them may quietly be assuming it's fine.

Went full swap with no furnace in a similar climate and I'd do it again, but I did air sealing and an attic top-up first, and I'm on a low overnight rate. Without both of those I would have kept the furnace and I'd have been right to.

Whatever you choose, the fifteen-year-old AC is the real trigger. You're not comparing a heat pump against nothing, you're comparing it against buying a new AC anyway, and that's a much smaller gap than the sticker suggests.